Nebelhorn Preview: Men

Let’s take a look at the men’s field for this weekend’s Olympic qualifying at Nebelhorn Trophy. As a reminder from my event overview, here’s how things stand for the men:

• Seven Olympic spots to hand out
• Countries who can earn a second spot: Canada, France, South Korea
• Countries who can earn a third spot: United States, Russia/ROC

The Field

Skater	Country	Best Scores
Vincent ZHOU	United States	SP: 100.51 FS: 198.50 Total: 299.01
Roman SADOVSKY	Canada	SP: 89.61 FS: 168.99 Total: 247.50
Adam SIAO HIM FA	France	SP: 80.54 FS: 156.85 Total: 237.69
Vladimir LITVINTSEV	Azerbaijan	SP: 81.46 FS: 154.65 Total: 230.84
Paul FENTZ	Germany	SP: 81.86 FS: 149.60 Total: 230.01
Brendan KERRY	Australia	SP: 80.99 FS: 147.63 Total: 224.44
Sihyeong LEE	South Korea	SP: 77.30 FS: 144.82 Total: 218.31
Maurizio ZANDRON	Austria	SP: 74.61 FS: 143.04 Total: 217.65
Slavik HAYRAPETYAN	Armenia	SP: 69.00 FS: 148.50 Total: 209.58
Basar OKTAR	Turkey	SP: 68.16 FS: 134.01 Total: 202.17
Peter James HALLAM	Great Britain	SP: 67.62 FS: 127.99 Total: 195.61
Davide LEWTON BRAIN	Monoco	SP: 67.36 FS: 125.66 Total: 193.02
Edrian Paul CELESTINO	Philippines	SP: 65.11 FS: 129.73 Total: 191.45
Valtter VIRTANEN	Finland	SP: 62.16 FS: 118.80 Total: 180.96
Tomas Llorenc GUARINO SABATE	Spain	SP: 63.22 FS: 115.24 Total: 178.46
Larry LOUPOLOVER	Bulgaria	SP: 70.36 FS: 118.47 Total: 177.26
Jari KESSLER	Croatia	SP: 59.06 FS: 117.07 Total: 176.13
Harrison Jon-Yen WONG	Hong Kong	SP: 58.78 FS: 113.79 Total: 171.59
Andras CSERNOCH	Hungary	SP: 56.88 FS: 114.58 Total: 171.46
Dias JIRENBAYEV	Kazakhstan	SP: 58.16 FS: 113.50 Total: 168.97
Matthew SAMUELS	South Africa	SP: 49.04 FS: 115.14 Total: 164.18
Adam HAGARA	Slovakia	SP: 56.38 FS: 106.25 Total: 162.63
Conor STAKELUM	Ireland	SP: 55.03 FS: 99.19 Total: 153.90
Kornel WITKOWSKI	Poland	SP: 54.88 FS: 100.97 Total: 152.81
Che Yu YEH	Taiwan	SP: 32.62 FS: 49.01 Total: 81.63
Mark KONDRATIUK	Russia	None

Predictions

Likely Qualifiers

Vincent Zhou (USA): Zhou had a nightmare short program at 2021 Worlds that saw him fail to make the free skate and threw the United States’ surefire path to three Olympic spots into disarray. However, his standing as a World bronze medalist, recent showing at Cranberry Cup, and near-300-point personal best show why the USFSA decided to give him another chance. He should win this event comfortably, but even a rough day would put him easily in the top seven, barring a complete meltdown like he had in March.

Roman Sadovsky (Canada): Canadian men have had their fair share of struggles over the past few years, but Roman has the potential to put up some massive scores and in a field of this depth, he should have no problem securing that second spot. Whether he’ll be the one to actually go to Beijing or whether countryman Nam Nguyen can rise to the occasion is a story for later in the season.

Mark Kondratiuk (Russia/ROC): Speaking of struggles in the men’s field…Russia. Russian men have been incredibly inconsistent over the past few seasons, as could probably be surmised from the seven potential entries they submitted to this event before settling on Kondratiuk. The 18-year-old burst onto the Russian domestic scene last season, taking the bronze at senior nationals after a fairly anonymous junior career. He was one of many skaters to miss a shot at Russia’s second Worlds entry last season (for a refresher, check out the recap of Russian Cup Final), but did well enough in test skates to get the call-up here. Kondratiuk has no official ISU scores so it’s hard to say where exactly he ranks in the field here, but a solid skate should be enough to pick up a final spot to ensure Russia sends a full contingent to the Olympic Games.

Adam Siao Him Fa (France): With hefty technical content and an incredibly fun Star Wars short program, expect Siao Him Fa to be fighting at the top end and walking away with France’s second Olympic spot.

Fighting it out

Men’s singles is arguably the most inconsistent discipline in the sport, so there are a whole host of skaters who could completely bomb out or vault into the top seven, but those with the strongest chance are Vladimir Litvintsev (Azerbaijan), Paul Fentz (Germany), Brendan Kerry (Australia), and Sihyeong Lee (South Korea).

Based purely on gut-feeling, I’m predicting Lee to secure the final spot over Kerry, but it’s still early in the season and there’s a lot on the line, so anything could happen.